Someone is buying
The S&P 500 hit a record on Tuesday. Two of our three calls for the week played out, and one didn’t. On Thursday, bonds rallied while oil rose, breaking the typical pattern in recent months.
Never Forget
Report Spotlight: Northern Star The Verdict Last week we argued that bond yields were peaking, that oil was the catalyst for a reversal and that a deal to reopen the Strait could come before the midterms. Yields went higher before they turned. The 10-year reached 5.3% on Wednesday, against 5.21% last Thursday, then bonds rallied […]
The Catch
The US 10-year broke through 5%. Our near-term call didn’t hold. Here’s where we stand now. Hedge funds are heavily short long-dated bonds.
Under New Management
Report Spotlight: St Barbara The Verdict We began the week arguing that a rate rise would be a clearing event for the bond market, and sharpened that to a preference for a dovish increase that signalled a short cycle. Wednesday’s US session rejected that reading, and we conceded as much in print on Thursday morning. […]
The Grip
Report Spotlight: James Hardie The fatLITE is the weekly read. Membership is the position. The Verdict Our expectation for the Federal Reserve changed this week. Our constructive outlook for markets into year-end did not. We began the week believing the Fed could leave rates unchanged while economic pressure brought Iran closer to negotiations. Instead, the […]
Unhedged
Report Spotlight – St Barbara The Verdict The market spent much of the week pricing the Federal Reserve to tighten into an oil shock and finished on Thursday with the odds close to a coin flip. Futures for the 15/16 September meeting opened the week at around 70% after Warsh’s comments at Jackson Hole and […]
China’s Reported BHP Iron Ore Ban Shakes Markets: Negotiating Tactic or Real Risk?
BHP Shares Hit by China Iron Ore Ban Rumours — Negotiation Tactics or Real Threat? BHP’s share price stumbled overnight as conflicting reports emerged that China has temporarily banned iron ore purchases from the Australian mining giant — a move that could shake global commodity markets if confirmed. Market Reaction: Shares Dip on Uncertainty BHP’s […]
RBA Holds Cash Rate at 3.6% as Bullock Urges Caution on Inflation
RBA Holds Cash Rate Steady as Bullock Urges Caution on Inflation Outlook The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has left the official cash rate unchanged at 3.6%, in a unanimous board decision that was widely expected by economists and markets. The decision comes amid volatile inflation data, a softening labour market, and heightened uncertainty around […]
DroneShield (ASX: DRO): From Trials to Frontlines — The Defence Tech Breakout Story
DroneShield (ASX: DRO) continues to cement its position as one of Australia’s most exciting defence technology companies, scaling rapidly from niche trial deployments to mainstream global procurement. With 4,000+ units sold, fresh contracts with the US Department of Defense (DoD), record-breaking financial results, and increasing global adoption, DroneShield is no longer a speculative story — […]
AI Boom or Bubble? Lessons from Dotcom, China Tech Upside & Copper Supply Shocks
Listening to CNBC and Bloomberg, there continues to be a lot of debate around whether the boom in all things AI and technology stocks is a bubble, which continues to dominate the airwaves. I have listened to countless interviews with fund managers and economists who have waded into the debate, many of whom are cautious, […]
US Stocks Slip as GDP Data Clouds Fed Easing Outlook
US stocks ended lower on Thursday, with all benchmarks down, led by the small/mid-cap Russell 2000. Revised GDP economic data pointed to a strong US economy with growth running at the strongest pace in two years. This print pushes back on the Fed easing narrative, with some, such as Citadel’s Ken Griffin, now only seeing […]
China Tech Stocks Break Out as Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu Ramp Up AI Spending
I have been bullish on major China tech companies this year, which many perceived to be well behind the US in the AI race at the beginning of the year. Many of these major Chinese tech monoliths were selling for very low valuations that had been compressed by a severe five-year bear market. This fundamental […]
