Wall Street Rises as Trump Tariff Threats Shake Markets
Wall Street benchmarks extended higher on Tuesday led by technology, and as investors digested Trump’s latest warning on tariffs that would be levelled at not just China, but also neighbouring countries Canada and Mexico. Bonds edged higher, while the US dollar surged to the highest level since mid’23 on the view that tariffs could stoke […]
Animal spirits
US benchmarks were mixed on Monday with the small-cap Russell 2000 continuing to lead the market. Bitcoin broke above $87,000 as the post-Trump rally in crypto continued. The US dollar also continued to rally which weighed on gold, commodities. The US bond market was closed for a public holiday. Asian stock markets came under some pressure […]
RBA Holds Rates at 4.35% as Markets Eye Early 2025 Cuts | ASX200 Dips
The RBA meeting didn’t spark much change locally, as the cash rate stayed at 4.35%, as widely expected. Governor Michelle Bullock said that rate cuts were likely but only towards the middle of next year. I still believe that the RBA will go earlier, but this could be a February event. The ASX200 wrapped up Tuesday’s session […]
Blackstone’s Jon Gray: Commercial Real Estate May Have Bottomed | Recovery Ahead
According to Blackstone President Jon Gray, “the worst of the commercial real estate turmoil looks to be over”. Mr Gray said that he is cautiously optimistic on the outlook for the commercial property after several years of big declines, and notably in office. Blackstone is the largest owner of commercial real estate globally, with assets […]
US Election, Bond Volatility & China Stimulus: Markets Brace for Big Moves
US interest rate options are pricing in a Republican sweep. Option markets are braced for biggest post-election swings in 30 years with risks around a Republican sweep potentially elevating inflation with higher tariffs. Bond yields are one risk and yesterday I mentioned that the 4.3%/4.4% level was key on the US10yr. An advance above that […]
WiseTech Global Share Price Tumbles – A Buy the Dip Opportunity?
WiseTech Global shares tumbled -14.6% in Monday trading marking the biggest daily drop in over a year, extending a weekly drop to over 21%. This followed media reports circling billionaire co-founder and CEO Richard White. Has the drama created a buying opportunity? We consider the case and believe so, recommending members consider taking advantage of […]
Gold Hits Record High as Dollar Strengthens – Correlation Breakdown Raises Risks
Gold made a new record high at US$2,734. The Dollar Index rose to 104 and has now rallied 4% off last month’s lows at 100. Whilst the technical setup still skews to the bearish side on a near-term basis, further upside could ensue over coming weeks if the DXY breaks above 104 as rate differentials […]
Wall Street Rally Broadens as Small Caps Lead, Precious Metals Shine Ahead of Election
The rally on Wall Street reasserted with the benchmarks rebounding and the Russell 2000 small/mid-caps leading. The rotation towards the laggards and more cyclical sectors of the market continued. The stock market appears to be pricing in a Trump win at the election. Investors presently see a Republican victory as being more a favourable outcome for […]
Flooding the market
OPEC+ Tensions Threaten Oil Price Stability as Saudi Arabia Signals Supply Surge Supporting the global disinflationary trend has been a big drop in the oil price, which has pushed energy costs lower. There are two factors behind this. The US has become the global leader in oil production which has climbed to around 13.5 million barrels […]
WebCast: Bull markets are born during maximum pessimism
Could the darkest moments be turning into the perfect time to buy, while euphoria signals it’s time to step back? Topics Being Discussed: S&P500: Bull market remains strong US10yr bond: Bond market steady US dollar Index: Rebound risk, but structural concerns CSI300: New bull market confirmed Hang Seng: Climbing a wall of worry Stocks in […]
China & Hong Kong Stocks: Stimulus, Profit-Taking, and Value Opportunities
In recent interview with Ausbiz, our CIO Angus Geddes noticed a big shift in Chinese and Hong Kong stocks. The recent rally in these markets is likely due to profit-taking following substantial gains. China stimulus: The Chinese government is expected to introduce a second round of stimulus measures to stabilize the floundering economy and stock […]
China Stimulus Sparks Global Market Rally | Commodities, Bonds & ASX Outlook
Much has happened over the course of just the last week with a number of key standout events shaping the course of where the markets are likely headed into yearend. Firstly, the solid labour market report which saw the US economy add 250,000 jobs well above consensus expectations has recalibrated lower the number of rate cuts priced […]
