Australasian Equities

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Australasian Equities

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Core

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New Boss and Order Book Stocked Up Austal (ASX: ASB) has confirmed has replaced the CEO in the US business after a period of instability that resulted in an accounting error, cutting full-year profit guidance by 18% to A$110 million. The company has 12 vessels currently under construction for the US Navy and Coast Guard. The order book is well stocked, and Australia’s Henderson yard is positioned for over +20 years of continuous work. Strong order visibility is offset by real execution risk,

BHP

Core

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BHP Hits an All-Time High as Copper Becomes the Primary Earnings Driver BHP (ASX: BHP) reached an all-time share price high this month, driven by copper prices. Copper has now overtaken iron ore as the company’s primary earnings driver, with 1H26 profits up 22% and dividends rising 46% to US$0.73 per share. With world-class, low-cost copper assets already in production, BHP has unmatched leverage to one of the most in-demand metals of the decade. In our last tech update on the 23rd of April, we noted that

Mirvac

Core

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Housing Shortage? Solution: 2 Week Homes Mirvac (ASX: MGR) is building a significant portfolio of purpose-built rental apartments, currently at 2,200 with a target of 5,000, backed by a $1.8 billion partnership with two major institutional investors. The company is also trialling factory-built homes in south-west Sydney, cutting construction time by roughly half and waste by 60%. Though near-term earnings are under pressure from higher borrowing costs, softer profit margins on home sales and rising construction costs. The strategy is credible, but the financial benefits

Fortescue

Speculative

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Fortescue Leans Into Chinese Capital and Equipment Fortescue (ASX: FMG) is coming under growing pricing pressure as China’s state-owned buyer methodically shifts contract terms in its favour. China purchases roughly 95% of Pilbara iron ore production, providing significant leverage over what Fortescue receives per tonne. In response, Fortescue is committing heavily to renewable energy, with over 1.4 gigawatts of solar capacity under construction across Western Australia, targeting completion by 2028. The renewable energy investment is credible and progressing, but diminishing pricing power

Evolution Mining

Speculative

high

Gold and Copper Reserves UP Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) delivered a strong 3Q26, reaching a solid net cash position on the back of record cash flows. The total volume of gold and copper identified in the ground grew after a full year of production, which is an encouraging sign for the long-term future of the miner. Full-year gold production guidance of 710,000 to 780,000 ounces remains unchanged. In our last tech update on the 16th of April, we noted that “Evolution Mining is reasserting upward

Whitehaven Coal

Speculative

high

Chinese Mine Disaster Triggers Tighter Coal Supply Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC) is Australia’s largest dedicated coal exporter. Coal is going to remain part of the energy mix for far longer than some investors thought. Chinese authorities requesting approval for large volumes of new coal-fired power stations points to sustained import demand from Asia, amidst supply disruptions, including the sad accident this week. This follows a surge in coal prices since January, partly driven by ME supply disruptions. Whitehaven has direct leverage

Sandfire Resources

Speculative

high

Two Accelerants, One Metal The copper story has always had structural bones – electrification, the energy transition, and an urbanising global middle class. What has changed recently is that two new demand accelerants have arrived simultaneously, the supply side has signalled it is struggling to keep pace, and a key pricing signal – the treatment and refining charge, or TC/RC – has effectively collapsed toward zero. When smelters are competing for feedstock rather than the other way around, that is not

Qantas

Core

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Ceasefire Hopes Lift Shares as Fuel Cost Pressures Show Signs of Easing Qantas shares have been tracking higher on Iran ceasefire hopes, which will take pressure off jet fuel costs. This would be a welcome relief given the 2nd half fuel bill blew out to A$3.1–3.3B (from A$2.5B pre-war). Meanwhile, Project Sunrise’s first long range Sydney to London/New York jet has wont be delivered until April next year, which is the third delay since ‘23, pushing anticipated premium route revenue out further to late next year.

About these archived stock reports

These are archived Fat Prophets equity research stock reports and share analysis. They do not constitute current investment advice, financial product advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product. They are provided for historical reference only, and reflect the market conditions, company information, forecasts and opinions available at its original publication date. The information may no longer be current or applicable. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

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