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Core

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New Tariff Regime? CSL (ASX: CSL) is looking like it is emerging as a relative winner versus many peers after Trump’s pharmaceutical tariffs were announced early this month. Their US plasma therapies, derived entirely from US-sourced plasma, are explicitly exempted from the new regime, while certain flu vaccine tariffs are set to fall from 10% to 0% when rules take effect on 29 September 2026. A $1.5 billion Illinois plasma capacity expansion cements its local manufacturing credentials. The stock is down roughly 40%

Santos

Speculative

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80,000 BPD Production Target Set for Mid-2026 Santos (ASX: STO) is sitting in a sweet spot as oil and gas prices have jumped. The energy giant has largely completed a big CapEx cycle, progressing two major growth projects simultaneously. Pikka Phase 1 on Alaska’s North Slope is mechanically complete with first oil expected imminently, a material new oil stream. Other growth options in their portfolio can be given the green light. Barossa LNG restarts around 18 April, restoring cash flows into a

BHP

Core

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Changing of the Guard A few developments since our last note on BHP have landed. The Wheaton silver stream has closed, Resolution Copper’s federal land exchange is complete, and Brandon Craig is confirmed as incoming CEO from 1 July. Overall, they incrementally add to the investment case, and BHP remains at a material discount to its highs. Iron ore is holding ground nicely well above $100/t. Copper’s structural tailwinds are intact, and the red metal has become the key driver

Orica

Core

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Cost-Cutting Programme Over 3 Years Orica (ASX: ORI) is the world’s largest commercial explosives provider, operating in an effective duopoly in key markets, now layering a structural $100 million-plus annual cost-cutting programme on top of solid earnings. 1H26 underlying profit is guiding slightly above the prior period’s $488.1 million despite Australian dollar headwinds. Digital Solutions profit is up roughly 20% and Specialty Mining Chemicals up roughly 15% year-on-year, accelerating the shift toward higher-margin, recurring technology revenues. Near-term restructuring charges and a US

Paladin Energy

Core

medium

Supply Gap has Opened? Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) rose after the CEO confirmed uranium production capacity at the key Langer Heinrich mine (~8m pounds p.a.) and that “a supply gap had opened” in the uranium market. Unit costs per pound of uranium produced at Langer have fallen over the past year, leading to a 45%-plus cash margin as higher-grade primary ore replaces lower-yielding stockpiles. The company now has a fortress balance sheet. Canadian uranium projects, including Patterson Lake South (PLS) and Michelin, provide optionality

Whitehaven Coal

Speculative

high

Iran Conflict Energy Shock Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC) is a leveraged play on the Iran conflict energy shock. Natural gas disruptions are redirecting Asian and European power utilities back to high-energy thermal coal, directly benefiting Whitehaven’s NSW and Queensland operations with their short shipping times and premium quality. Group production rose roughly 20% year-on-year with costs at the low end of guidance, meaning coal prices above $130-140 per tonne flow almost entirely to profit. Policy-driven restrictions on new mines tighten the

Mirvac

Core

medium

Repositioning! Mirvac (ASX: MGR) is successfully repositioning from an office-heavy portfolio to a residential and warehouse platform. Management recently reaffirmed upbeat operating earnings guidance and a c5.5% prospective dividend yield. Major new projects, including Blackwattle Bay (the old Sydney fish market) and Green Square, extend the development pipeline for a decade. Capital-efficient partnerships with institutional investors enable growth without having to raise more equity, which is dilutionary. Residential sales, meanwhile, have remained resilient in structurally undersupplied markets such as Sydney and Melbourne. In

Fortescue

Speculative

high

Sector-Leading Production + Electrification = PROFIT? Fortescue (ASX: FMG) delivered record first-half shipments of 100.2 million tonnes, 53% operating profit margin, and net profit up 23% to $1.9 billion, all at a sector-leading production cost of $18.64 per tonne. Iron Bridge magnetite shipments surged over 40% year-on-year, progressively lifting average realised prices. Electrification is already saving roughly $100 million per year in fuel costs, a direct hedge against the Iran conflict diesel price shock. Deep China ties via CMRG and a

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