Australasian Equities

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Australasian Equities

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Core

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Australia’s Leading Business Bank Firing on All Cylinders National Australia Bank’s (ASX: NAB) is the leading business bank, and 1Q26 cash earnings were up ~6% year-on-year, while CET1 sits at 11.48%, which is well above the regulator’s minimum requirement. Two consecutive central bank rate rises to 4.10% are being fully passed to borrowers, directly expanding profit margins on loans. Earnings momentum is underpinned, and I don’t anticipate the RBA will lift as aggressively over the remainder of 2026 as the market

Rio Tinto

Core

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Long-Term Bull Case Intact Despite ME Headwinds Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) continues to see pressure with iron ore and base metal sentiment still down from Middle East economic headwinds and China demand uncertainty. The structural bull case is still there: Rio Tinto is the most diversified major miner on the ASX — iron ore, copper, aluminium, lithium (Arcadium), and titanium. Copper, in particular, is structurally undersupplied. The energy transition requires ~3x current production by 2040. Rio’s Oyu Tolgoi copper ramp-up in

St Barbara

Speculative

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The Bigger Story Gold’s worst weekly decline in a generation has rattled the sector, and St Barbara has not been spared. The stock has shed roughly a third of its market capitalisation since our last coverage in early March, reaching A$0.545 and a market cap of A$659m. The pullback will feel painful, and the macro backdrop is unsettling from an emotional perspective. Anyone who bought gold as a safe-haven trade has been reminded that even safe havens can gap down sharply.

Northern Star

Speculative

high

Capitulation It’s been a particularly tough week for Northern Star shares. Management tested investor patience again with last Friday’s ASX filing, and then the gold price melted down, compounding the hit to the stock price. The company’s 13 March operational update said achieving even the lower end of its already-reduced FY26 production outlook would be “challenging”, with weaker-than-planned milling at KCGM and reduced mining productivity across several operating areas, particularly at Jundee, weighing on March quarter-to-date performance. January and February gold

CSL

Core

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Shortening the Supply Chain in Latin America CSL (ASX: CSL) saw its share slip despite the vaccine division signing a long-term flu vaccine supply agreement with the Pan American Health Organisation covering Latin America, with local manufacturing to be established in Argentina through partner Sinergium Biotech. The companies will invest $10 million in technology transfer on top of Sinergium’s $25 million facility expansion. The deal provides access to recurring government procurement across Latin American countries and includes pandemic preparedness capacity. The market seemed underwhelmed by the absence

Macquarie Group

Core

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Pulling the Plug on Kuwait Deal Macquarie (ASX: MQG) jumped after withdrawing from Kuwait’s $7 billion oil pipeline sale, explicitly citing the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure as reasons for stepping back. Macquarie continues to compound earnings off a well-diversified, capital-light platform, with FY25 NPAT of A$3.7 billion up 5% and a small uplift in the full-year dividend, reflecting balance sheet strength and capital flexibility. In our last tech update on the 12th of February, we noted that “Since our last update,

Austal

Core

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Defending Accounting Treatment Austal (ASX: ASB) reaffirmed that the half-year report complies with accounting standards despite an auditor qualification over US defence contract relief documentation. The order book climbed 35% to a record $17.7 billion, including $5 billion in new Australian landing craft contracts signed in February for delivery through 2038. Half-year revenue jumped 34% with operating margins expanding to 5.4%. The auditor qualification stems from confidential US defence negotiations lacking written evidence, not concerns over whether relief will be granted.

Woodside Energy

Core

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Acting CEO Confirmed Permanent Woodside (ASX: WDS) is a geared play on a tightening global LNG market, with record 2025 output of 198.8 MMboe, and solid NPAT still supporting an elevated dividend despite softer prices. With Scarborough targeting first gas by 4Q26, Trion now in the drilling phase, and the Louisiana LNG project reaffirmed as a key priority under newly confirmed CEO Liz Westcott, the growth pipeline underpins medium term volume and cash-flow upside. The Iran conflict has sent oil and gas

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