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Australasian Equities

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Core

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A firmer floor for 2026 The evolving US housing policy mix under President Donald Trump still presents cross-currents for James Hardie into 2026. Still, the balance appears modestly more constructive. The administration’s direction for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase mortgage-backed securities to the tune of up to US$200bn briefly pushed 30-year fixed mortgage rates below 6%, though they have rebounded somewhat. Even if the ultimate impact settles at a relatively modest 25–30bp reduction, this matters at the margin for buyer

Rio Tinto

Core

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Testing the Waters (again) Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) has confirmed early stage talks with Glencore on a potential merger, prompting an immediate market reaction split between caution and optimism. Rio’s shares sold off on concerns around scale, complexity and execution risk, while Glencore rallied as the prospective target. Rio management stressed there is no certainty a deal will proceed, with a February deadline setting a near-term decision point. Strategically, the discussions highlight a possible path toward greater copper exposure and diversification, but valuation,

Ansell

Core

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Passing the Baton Ansell’s (ASX: ANN) planned leadership transition briefly unsettled sentiment (pushing shares to a recent 2-month low), though it left the underlying strategy unchanged. Long-time CEO Neil Salmon will step down in February, with former Fiskars Group CEO Nathalie Ahlström appointed as successor following a structured handover. While the announcement triggered a knee-jerk pullback, guidance, operating priorities, and the company’s global strategy remain intact. The transition points to continuity rather than disruption, with execution now the focus as leadership responsibility

Judo Capital

Speculative

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Sticking to the Growth Script Judo Capital (ASX: JDO) has started calendar 2026 by confirming that the SME growth strategy remains on track. An unaudited December update shows gross loans and advances at approximately A$13.4 billion, supporting unchanged FY26 guidance for both loan growth and profit. Lending momentum has been achieved without loosening risk settings or adjusting outlook assumptions, reinforcing the operating-leverage thesis as scale builds. In a cautious banking environment, the update positions Judo as a niche lender still expanding

Our Top Predictions for 2026 – Part II

The Baker’s Dozen predictions for 2026: Part 2 Last week we shared the first 7 of our 13 predictions for 2026 – our annual look at how markets might move and change over the coming year. Today we’re back with the final 6 calls (#8-13). 8. Oil delivers a surprise, which starkly contrasts with current consensus forecasts of sharply lower prices and a supply glut. As supply floods the market, oil prices spike downwards and flush out the last of the few remaining

Our Top Predictions for 2026 – Part l

The Baker’s Dozen predictions for 2026: Part 1 Sitting down to contemplate how markets will move and change over the coming year is always a highlight of our publishing calendar. Our 2026 line-up sees many of the key themes from 2025 continuing, but with some notable exceptions. We’ve largely avoided politics, though we are renewing one prediction from 2025 (which we got wrong): that the Ukraine war will end sometime in 2026 – an outcome that could profoundly impact commodity markets. We’ve

Baker’s Dozen 2025 Scorecard

The Baker’s Dozen 2025 scorecard Each year, we peer into the fog of the future markets and where they are headed and try to forecast what might come next. We draw on a mix of data, history, our own experience and instincts. Every year, reality replies. Sometimes gently, sometimes with a baseball bat or a black swan (such as Covid). Our 2025 “Baker’s Dozen” was an attempt to capture the big forces we thought would shape the year, for investors. A world playing

2025 Review

The Hard Flip: 2025 Reflections 2025 delivered for those with exposure to hard assets Down Under. Materials flipped from weak in 2024 to hot in 2025. Gold miners ran red hot as the yellow metal set a streak of records, and the neglected sector enjoyed firm bids. Meanwhile, last year’s tech darlings tumbled. Banks were a relative haven. The ASX200 sits +6.6% higher YTD at 8,699 at the time of writing. That is respectable but unremarkable compared to many better-performing international peers.

About these archived stock reports

These are archived Fat Prophets equity research stock reports and share analysis. They do not constitute current investment advice, financial product advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product. They are provided for historical reference only, and reflect the market conditions, company information, forecasts and opinions available at its original publication date. The information may no longer be current or applicable. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

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