Australasian Equities

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Australasian Equities

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Speculative

high

Worth waiting Hanwha recently put a price on Austal’s American business before a significant news event. The 11 August announcement says plainly that the offer arrived before the trading update. The headline range of US$1.05bn to US$1.20bn was set without sight of an A$175m hole. The downgrade was a big one, which the market looked through because of the Hanwha offer, with a share price spike for Austal on the day the announcement was released and the trading halt was

Northern Star

Speculative

high

Peak Capex, Turning Gold We are upgrading Northern Star (ASX: NST) from Hold to Buy. Two things drive the upgrade. The first is gold. Our earlier move to Hold in May was mainly a call on the metal as it endured an extended correction. We think that correction has now run its course. Gold has recovered materially from July levels and popped in US trading on Wednesday after the Treasury doubled its programme of buying back its own long-dated debt. The

Whitehaven Coal

Speculative

high

Better Coal Prices Meet Lower Costs Whitehaven Coal’s (ASX: WHC) FY26 profit decline masks an improving earnings set-up: stronger coal prices, lower interest costs and fewer acquisition payments improve the cash-flow outlook. The FY26 profit fall was a price-and-currency story, rather than an operating one. Underlying NPAT fell 29% to $227 million and revenue declined 7% to $5.4 billion as lower coal prices and a stronger Australian dollar reduced realised Australian-dollar revenue, even as managed production of 40.3 million tonnes and sales

Santos

Speculative

high

The Cash-Flow Inflection Is Near Santos (ASX: STO) is moving from a period of heavy construction spending into higher production and cash generation, as Barossa LNG and Pikka oil ramp up. That transition supports our bullish view despite a softer 1H26 profit. The delay between spend and payoff explains the disconnect in this result. Santos has already carried much of the cost of building Barossa and Pikka, but hasn’t yet banked the full production benefit. 1H26 production rose 3% to 45.6 million

HUB24

Core

medium

Strong Results, Slower Near-Term Flows HUB24’s (ASX: HUB) FY26 result confirms that its adviser platform is taking market share and converting scale into faster profit growth, but softer discretionary investment flows and a demanding valuation support a more neutral view at this point. Looking at the numbers, the FY26 results were strong. Underlying EBITDA rose 30% to $211.4 million, ahead of revenue growth of 23% to $501.1 million, while underlying NPAT increased 40% to $137.3 million. This shows that platform scale

Evolution Mining

Speculative

high

Both Barrels Loaded We are upgrading Evolution Mining to a Buy. Our view had been that gold was in a consolidation phase, and we think that phase has run its course. We remain bullish on copper, trading at record highs and, we think, capable of extending significantly further. Evolution is a way to obtain exposure to both views at once, because it is now fully unhedged on gold and copper alike. Evolution delivered its last gold hedges during the year to 30

CSL

Core

medium

The Plasma Recovery Is Becoming Visible CSL’s (ASX: CSL) FY26 headline numbers were rough on the surface – showing a hefty statutory loss and an underwhelming group result – but the stock rallied sharply on Tuesday and Wednesday. The market quickly focused on signs that the core plasma business is recovering. FY26 underlying NPATA fell 2% at constant currency to US$3.1 billion in FY26, on revenue down 1% to US$15.8 billion. The reported US$2.6 billion loss reflects US$7.1 billion of pre-tax impairments

BHP

Core

medium

Less Ore, and still More Money For the first full year in BHP’s history, copper is the biggest earner. The copper segment delivered US$18.2 billion of underlying EBITDA in FY26, up 48%, and accounted for 54% of group earnings, ahead of iron ore. It managed that while producing 3% less metal than the year before. That is the investment case we outlined in our prior note. The price is doing the work that volume didn’t, and we think the copper

About these archived stock reports

These are archived Fat Prophets equity research stock reports and share analysis. They do not constitute current investment advice, financial product advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product. They are provided for historical reference only, and reflect the market conditions, company information, forecasts and opinions available at its original publication date. The information may no longer be current or applicable. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

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