Australasian Equities

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Australasian Equities

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Core

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Penfolds Holds Its Ground as the US Stumbles Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE) has protected Penfolds consumer demand while resetting an overstocked and lower-margin US business, but the scale of the American write-down and flat FY27 earnings outlook leave the shares dependent on execution rather than near-term growth. TWE records wine sales when it ships to distributors, but future orders depend on what those distributors sell through to customers, known as depletions. Penfolds’ customer demand has held up while shipments have been

Domino’s Pizza Enterprises

Speculative

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The Boss Orders In We upgrade Domino’s Pizza Enterprises (ASX: DMP) to a Buy. The new chief executive Andrew Gregory has put about A$1.9m of his own money into the stock. On 22 September, a little over six weeks into the job, he bought 98,000 shares on market at ~A$19.33, lifting his holding from 6,108 shares. A CEO who has just been through the books buying at this level is a clear signal that the key person running the turnaround

Evolution Mining

Speculative

high

Infrastructure Does Double Duty Evolution Mining’s (ASX: EVN) proposed Carnaby acquisition could turn unused Ernest Henry processing capacity into a lower-capital copper growth option, strengthening the long-term investment case. Evolution produces gold and copper from Australian and Canadian mines. Besides production, gold and copper prices are key levers, and our house view is positive on both. Copper made up 22% of FY26 revenue and also lowers group costs due to the strong by-product credits. Copper sales at Ernest Henry and Northparkes more

Suncorp

Core

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Rising Rates Give Suncorp a Tailwind Suncorp (ASX: SUN) earns more from policyholder funds as interest rates rise, and its existing pricing discipline and surplus capital give it room to manage claims inflation. Takeover speculation is potential upside rather than the reason for our current bullish view. The RBA increased the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% on 29 September, its fourth rise in 2026. Suncorp’s Australian insurance funds exited FY26 yielding 5.3%, up from an underlying 5.1% for the

Northern Star

Speculative

high

Gold Fields rebuffed; we maintain a Buy We maintain our Buy rating on Northern Star (ASX: NST). On Monday, NST shares rallied after the company disclosed that it had received and rejected a non-binding proposal from Gold Fields. The offer was 0.3125 Gold Fields shares plus A$7.25 cash for each Northern Star share. That was worth A$27.00 a share, or A$38.7 billion, on 11 September prices, a 22% premium. Northern Star shares rose ~6.2% to A$23.47 on the day. They closed

Amcor

Core

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Savings on Schedule, Debt Still Weighs Amcor’s (ASX: AMC) first full year with Berry Global shows that the merger can lift margins and earnings, but the shares need stronger cash conversion and debt reduction. Amcor makes flexible and rigid packaging for food, healthcare, beauty and consumer-goods customers. It earns more when customer volumes rise, plants run efficiently, and it can pass raw-material movements through to customers. The Berry acquisition has enlarged that manufacturing network and broadened the customer base. The investment

Downer EDI

Speculative

high

Trading Volume for Value Downer’s (ASX: DOW) FY26 result confirms that a smaller, simpler portfolio can generate higher margins and stronger underlying earnings, but the expected first-half FY27 slowdown means the investment case now depends on secured government work converting into profit as major contracts mobilise. Downer maintains and delivers infrastructure across transport, energy, utilities and facilities management in Australia and New Zealand. It earns income from long-term service contracts and project delivery, largely for governments and major institutions. FY26 highlights how

Capstone Copper

Speculative

high

Funding the next chapter We maintain our BUY rating on Capstone Copper (TSX: CS and ASX: CSC) following its 21 September agreement to sell the Cozamin mine in Mexico to Luca Mining for up to US$385m. Our rating rests on our bullish copper outlook and Capstone’s growth projects in Chile, particularly Santo Domingo, where a final investment decision is targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026. The sale helps fund that growth. Cozamin is a low-cost mine, but its current reserve-based life

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