Australasian Equities

Equity Research
Archive
Australasian Equities

Sample Reports | Old Reports | Not Current

Speculative

high

Judo Capital’s Next Chapter Hinges on Bad Debts Judo Capital’s (ASX: JDO) FY26 result shows that its SME banking model is beginning to produce stronger margins and operating leverage, but the increase in specific loan provisions means FY27 must prove that rapid growth can continue without a repeat credit-cost shock. Judo lends primarily to Australian small and medium-sized businesses and funds much of that loan book with deposits. It earns the difference between interest received from borrowers and interest paid to depositors

Generation Development Group

Core

medium

Building Scale, Waiting on the Payoff Generation Development Group (ASX: GDG) added client funds at a rapid pace in FY26 and lifted underlying profit, but the benefit has not yet reached shareholders on a per-share basis; FY27 must show that the enlarged platform can convert scale into higher margins and earnings per share. GDG earns recurring fees from investment bonds, managed accounts and investment research. Generation Life manages tax-effective investment bonds and retirement products, Evidentia provides managed-account services to advice firms, and

The Lottery Corporation

Speculative

high

Buying Decades of Certainty The Lottery Corporation’s (ASX: TLC) FY26 profit fell after a year without a jumbo-sized Powerball or Oz Lotto jackpot, but the rest of the business held up well. A 40-year extension of its Victorian licence lengthens its earnings runway, at the cost of an A$1.145 billion payment that will push debt above its target range. The Lottery Corporation sells lottery tickets and Keno through retail outlets, licensed venues and digital channels. Its earnings rise when large jackpots attract

James Hardie Industries

Core

medium

What the headline left out James Hardie raised its free cash flow target at last week’s investor day. The adverse market reaction reflected a solid recovery in the shares before the event and the fact that sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance were reaffirmed rather than raised, while most of the additional cash comes from AZEK deal costs rolling off rather than stronger underlying cash generation. The strategy set out in New York was coherent, and the deleveraging path is credible. Combine

Integral Diagnostics

Core

medium

The Hard Part’s Done. Now Comes the Real Test Integral Diagnostics (ASX: IDX) has delivered the first clear financial benefit from its Capitol Health acquisition. The next phase is harder. Management is targeting an operating EBITDA margin above 21% in FY27, and hitting it will require organic growth and cost discipline rather than further integration savings. IDX earns fees by providing diagnostic scans, including X-rays, CT, MRI, ultrasound and nuclear imaging, across Australia and New Zealand. Earnings depend on patient volumes, referral

Praemium

Core

medium

Migration Is Done, the Real Test Begins Praemium (ASX: PPS) has completed the OneVue migration and improved its underlying margin, but the investment case now depends on converting strong client-asset growth into reported cash earnings while delivering a new technology platform without further disruption or cost escalation. Praemium provides investment administration technology to financial advisers, stockbrokers and private-wealth managers. It earns recurring fees when client assets sit on its custody platform or when advisers use its non-custody reporting and administration services. Revenue

Rio Tinto

Core

medium

Shoring Up Its Aluminium Foundations Rio Tinto’s (ASX: RIO) proposed Aurukun bauxite acquisition would strengthen the long-term resource base for its Australian aluminium chain, while the Tomago power agreement reduces a separate but equally important risk at the smelting end of that chain. Rio generates most of its earnings from Pilbara iron ore, but its aluminium business links bauxite mines, alumina refineries and aluminium smelters. Bauxite is the ore refined into alumina, which is then smelted into aluminium. This vertically integrated model

Austal

Speculative

high

A Way Out Emerges for Austal’s US Headache Austal’s (ASX: ASB) FY26 loss was caused by disputed US Navy contracts rather than weaker demand, and the emerging contest for Austal USA could crystallise value while leaving shareholders with a profitable Australian defence business backed by more than A$5 billion of contracted work. Austal earns revenue by designing, building and sustaining defence and commercial vessels. Its FY26 result highlights a sharp divide within that model: Australian shipbuilding is gaining scale and profitability, while

About these archived stock reports

These are archived Fat Prophets equity research stock reports and share analysis. They do not constitute current investment advice, financial product advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product. They are provided for historical reference only, and reflect the market conditions, company information, forecasts and opinions available at its original publication date. The information may no longer be current or applicable. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

This is general information only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on anything in this report, you should consider its appropriateness to your circumstances and seek advice from a licensed financial adviser.

DISCLAIMER Fat Prophets has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites. Fat Prophets research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believed to be reliable and accurate at time of publication. However, like the markets, we are not perfect. This report is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore discuss, with their financial planner or advisor, the merits of each recommendation for their own specific circumstances and realise that not all investments will be appropriate for all subscribers. To the extent permitted by law, Fat Prophets and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special, or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information within the report whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, Fat Prophets hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply.

Funds Management – In addition to the listed fund FPC, Fat Prophets Pty Ltd manages the separately managed accounts, namely Concentrated Australian Shares, Australian Shares Income, Small Midcap, Global Opportunities, Mining & Resources, and Asian Shares. These SMAs are managed under their own mandates by the fund managers, and this is independent to the research reports.

Staff trading – Fat Prophets Pty Ltd, its directors, employees and associates of Fat Prophets may hold interests in many ASX-listed Australian companies which may or may not be mentioned or recommended in the Fat Prophets newsletter. These positions may change at any time, without notice. To manage the conflict between personal dealing and newsletter recommendations the directors, employees, and associates of Fat Prophets Pty Ltd cannot knowingly trade in a stock 48 hours either side of a buy or sell recommendation being made in the Fat Prophets newsletter. Staff trades are pre-approved by an appointed staff trading compliance officer to ensure compliance with the staff trading policy.

For positions that directors and/or associates of the Fat Prophets group of companies currently hold in, please click here.