Someone is buying
Report Spotlight: CSL As a fatLITE reader, you can join Platinum, our full service, at the discounted price of $695 a year. Join Platinum at $695 The Verdict We have been positioned for calls that US bond yields are close to peaking, that equities look strong into year-end, and that oil would move lower. Two […]
Never Forget
Report Spotlight: Northern Star The Verdict Last week we argued that bond yields were peaking, that oil was the catalyst for a reversal and that a deal to reopen the Strait could come before the midterms. Yields went higher before they turned. The 10-year reached 5.3% on Wednesday, against 5.21% last Thursday, then bonds rallied […]
The Catch
Fat Prophets Platinum, our full service, for $695 a year until midnight Monday 28 September. Join at $695. The Verdict We began the week expecting the US 10-year yield to hold below 5% in the near term, on falling oil and hopes of a deal with Iran. That held early week. On Wednesday, Iran’s president […]
Under New Management
Report Spotlight: St Barbara The Verdict We began the week arguing that a rate rise would be a clearing event for the bond market, and sharpened that to a preference for a dovish increase that signalled a short cycle. Wednesday’s US session rejected that reading, and we conceded as much in print on Thursday morning. […]
The Grip
Report Spotlight: James Hardie The fatLITE is the weekly read. Membership is the position. The Verdict Our expectation for the Federal Reserve changed this week. Our constructive outlook for markets into year-end did not. We began the week believing the Fed could leave rates unchanged while economic pressure brought Iran closer to negotiations. Instead, the […]
Unhedged
Report Spotlight – St Barbara The Verdict The market spent much of the week pricing the Federal Reserve to tighten into an oil shock and finished on Thursday with the odds close to a coin flip. Futures for the 15/16 September meeting opened the week at around 70% after Warsh’s comments at Jackson Hole and […]
Manufactured
The Verdict The US Treasury said last week that it would double the maximum size of its bond buyback operations to at least $4bn – buying back its own long-dated bonds from investors, pushing their price up and their yield down. The debt those bonds belong to passed $40 trillion this month. This week brought […]
The Smoke Test
The Verdict Washington moved this week to put a lid on its own borrowing costs, and the bond market took it back off inside twenty-four hours. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced he would at least double the size of the Treasury’s buyback operations – the government purchasing its own outstanding bonds back from […]
Provenance
The Verdict Excluding the continued uncertainty about the Strait, the bond market didn’t accept good news this week and needs to be watched like a hawk. Soft inflation data usually buys lower yields. Not this time at the long end. July CPI came in soft for the second consecutive month. July PPI was unchanged month-on-month […]
The Float
The fatLITE is the weekly read. Membership is the position. The Verdict Washington spent this week working to weaken its own currency, and the reason is more to do with the bond market than with trade. On Monday, the US Treasury and the Bank of Japan sold dollars and bought yen in the first coordinated […]
The Roof Comes Later
The fatLITE is the weekly read. Membership is the position. The Verdict For the US government, the cost of borrowing for thirty years reached a nineteen-year high this week. In the same four sessions, the equity market stopped rewarding companies for spending on artificial intelligence and started rewarding them for spending less. On Wednesday, the […]
Undefended
The fatLITE is the weekly read. Membership is the position. The Verdict Brent hit $100 on Thursday for the first time since May, and the US 10-year reached 4.7%, the highest since early 2025. Those are not two separate events. Energy was setting the rate path, and towards the end of the week the repricing […]
